IMF Raises South Korea’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 3.3% on Chip Export Boom
The IMF upgraded South Korea’s 2026 growth outlook by 0.7 percentage point, saying powerful semiconductor exports are outweighing pressure from the Middle East conflict and other global risks.
The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for South Korea’s economic growth in 2026 to 3.3 percent, pointing to a powerful semiconductor export cycle that has more than offset the impact of the Middle East conflict.
The new estimate is 0.7 percentage point above the IMF’s July projection and exceeds its 3.1 percent forecast for global growth. The fund also upgraded its outlook for South Korea in 2027 to 2.8 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from its previous estimate.
The revisions were included in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, released during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group in Bangkok. They add to evidence that demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure is providing an unusually strong lift to Korea’s export-driven economy.
The IMF identified South Korea and Taiwan as important trading partners in the AI hardware supply chain. Changes in the two economies could therefore have wider effects on raw-material exporters and manufacturing centers connected to semiconductor production.
Korea’s Finance and Economy Ministry said the size of the IMF’s upgrade reflected robust exports of chips and other AI hardware. The 0.7 percentage-point increase for Korea was larger than the 0.4 percentage-point upward revision for a group of 41 advanced economies, whose combined 2026 growth forecast was set at 2.1 percent.
Recent trade figures underline the strength of the upswing. South Korea’s exports climbed 83.5 percent from a year earlier in September to a record $120.9 billion. Semiconductor shipments surpassed $60 billion for the first time during the month, helping propel the overall total.
Other international institutions have also become more optimistic. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office recently lifted its 2026 forecast for Korea to 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last month raised its estimate to 3.7 percent from 2.6 percent, likewise citing strong exports.
The outlook still carries significant risks. The IMF highlighted commodity-price volatility, inflation pressure, renewed trade friction and the possibility that expected productivity gains from AI could be reassessed. It said a longer AI technology upcycle and changes in global energy supply chains could provide additional momentum, while Korea’s ministry warned that the prolonged Middle East war and higher consumer prices continue to weigh on households.
The government said it plans to address economic disparities and improve living conditions as it works to strengthen the economy’s longer-term growth potential.