Seoul Spy Agency Sees Even Chance of Trump-Kim Summit This Year

South Korea’s intelligence service assessed that a summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has roughly an even chance of taking place this year, according to lawmakers briefed at the National Assembly on Wednesday.

The National Intelligence Service said a meeting could occur around the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gatherings scheduled to be held in China in November. People Power Party lawmaker Yoo Yeong-ha told reporters that the agency placed the likelihood at about 50 percent and believed North Korean officials handling relations with Washington had been unusually active.

The assessment points to a possible opening in diplomacy after years of tension over Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. It does not indicate that a summit has been agreed, and the intelligence service’s estimate remains a judgment about the intentions of governments whose negotiations are often conducted in secrecy.

Democratic Party lawmaker Youn Kun-young said the agency viewed North Korea as trying to keep the door open to improved ties with the United States. According to the briefing, Pyongyang has avoided direct attacks or especially harsh rhetoric against Trump, behavior the agency interpreted as an effort not to disrupt a possible return to talks.

At the same time, North Korea continues to demand a change in Washington’s approach. The intelligence service said Pyongyang is seeking recognition as a nuclear-armed state and wants the United States to abandon what it describes as a hostile policy, including pressure centered on sanctions and denuclearization. Those demands remain a major obstacle to any renewed negotiation.

The agency also cited Kim’s recent public conduct as a sign of restraint. Although his total number of public appearances this year has increased by about 30 percent from the corresponding period of 2025 to 121, he has avoided appearing publicly at weapons tests and military drills, lawmakers were told.

Wednesday’s parliamentary briefing came as inter-Korean tensions remain elevated. The intelligence service characterized a statement by Kim Yo-jong denying North Korean involvement in a Sept. 21 land-mine blast in the Demilitarized Zone as relatively restrained. The explosions injured three South Korean service members, and Seoul has said North Korean-made mines were responsible.

The briefing also addressed military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. The agency estimated that about 9,000 North Korean troops are currently deployed alongside Russian forces. It said Moscow, however, has been slow to transfer technology that could support Pyongyang’s development of intercontinental ballistic missiles or nuclear-powered submarines.

For Seoul, the possibility of renewed US-North Korea engagement creates both an opportunity to reduce tensions and a need for close coordination with Washington. The intelligence assessment suggests diplomatic space may be emerging, but the gap over nuclear status, sanctions and denuclearization remains substantial.