South Korea’s Rice Output Projected to Fall as Farmland Shrinks

South Korea’s rice production is projected to decline modestly in 2026 as the country reduces the amount of land devoted to the staple crop. The Ministry of Data and Statistics estimates output at 3.51 million tons, down 0.6 percent from 3.53 million tons a year earlier.

The expected drop is tied primarily to a contraction in cultivated area. Rice paddies cover an estimated 670,000 hectares this year, 1.1 percent less than the 678,000 hectares recorded in 2025. The area is shrinking faster than projected production, suggesting that yields may partly offset the loss of farmland, although the preliminary figures do not provide a final yield assessment.

The change also reflects government efforts to bring rice supply into closer alignment with demand. Authorities have supported farmers who move acreage away from rice and into other crops, a policy response to the long-term decline in domestic rice consumption. Changing diets and growing demand for wheat-based and other foods have steadily reduced rice’s place in Korean meals, even though it remains a central agricultural product and household staple.

The regional breakdown shows that the country’s southwestern farming belt remains the largest contributor. South Jeolla Province and Gwangju are expected to produce a combined 738,000 tons. South Chungcheong Province follows with a projected 689,000 tons, while North Jeolla Province is forecast to produce 533,000 tons. Together, those areas account for a substantial share of the national harvest and will play a major role in determining whether the preliminary estimate holds.

A smaller crop does not by itself indicate a shortage. The projection needs to be viewed alongside falling consumption and policies intended to prevent chronic oversupply. For farmers, however, shifts in planting area can affect income, crop choices and demand for agricultural support. For policymakers, the challenge is to manage supply without undermining production capacity or creating volatility in rural communities.

The current estimate remains provisional. The data ministry plans to publish final production figures in November, when updated information on harvested area and yields will provide a clearer measure of the season’s output. Those figures will show whether reduced acreage translated into the forecast decline and offer a firmer basis for rice supply policy in the year ahead.