South Korea Forecasts Record Tax Revenue as Chip Boom Lifts Corporate Profits

South Korea’s tax revenue is projected to climb to a record 478.6 trillion won in 2026 as a semiconductor industry boom and stronger stock-market activity lift government receipts well above earlier expectations.

The Ministry of Finance and Economy’s revised estimate is 104.7 trillion won higher than the 373.9 trillion won collected in 2025. It would also surpass the previous annual record of 395.9 trillion won set in 2022. Compared with the forecast used to prepare this year’s budget, the new figure represents an upward revision of 88.4 trillion won.

The biggest contribution is expected to come from corporate taxes. The government now forecasts corporate tax revenue of 136.4 trillion won, an increase of 51.8 trillion won from last year. Finance officials attributed the jump primarily to the semiconductor upcycle, saying chipmakers’ operating profits were running roughly 70 to 80 percent above the levels assumed in the original projection.

Income tax receipts are also expected to exceed the initial estimate. The government projects 152.4 trillion won in income tax revenue, compared with an earlier forecast of 132 trillion won. Higher bonus payments at semiconductor and financial companies have helped push the estimate upward.

The strong equity market has created another source of additional revenue. Securities transaction tax receipts are forecast at 12.4 trillion won, more than double the original projection of 5.4 trillion won, after gains in the stock market during the first half of the year.

The unexpected increase could have major implications for the government’s planned Future Fund, which is intended to direct gains from the semiconductor cycle toward longer-term economic growth. Experts estimate that more than 200 trillion won could be available for the fund when projected surplus revenue of 56.2 trillion won is combined with 162.3 trillion won classified as windfall revenue.

Officials distinguish windfall revenue from an ordinary tax surplus. Windfall revenue refers to receipts above the long-term trend because of structural economic changes or unusually large swings such as an industry supercycle. A surplus, by contrast, generally arises when actual collections exceed an official forecast because of short-term fluctuations or forecasting errors.

A bill submitted to the National Assembly would allow surplus revenue to be transferred to the Future Fund. Relevant ministries are now discussing how the additional money should be used, making the allocation of the chip-driven fiscal gains a key issue for economic policy.